Preparing the 2027 budget to make decisions early

Author: Carlos Ocampo · D31

Source session: D365-IRL · Day 395

Type: Signals and Practice

Source video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4OW7CrHcpo

Field date: November 4, 2026, confirmed by Carlos Ocampo

Location: D365-IRL session; physical location not documented

Time: not documented

A useful budget makes the business's assumptions visible and helps prepare decisions about sales, costs, and cash availability before conditions change.

Start by reviewing 2026 revenue, expenses, seasonality, and collection times, or justify each item from a zero base. Include the founder's pay and operating costs. Then build positive, neutral, and negative scenarios, make their assumptions explicit, and compare them with actual performance so you can adjust decisions throughout the year as conditions change.

On Day 395 of D365-IRL, the conversation focused on preparing the business's finances for the following year. The close of 2026 offers an opportunity to review what is sustaining operations and what needs to change.

Before completing a forecast, it helps to define what we want the business to look like at the end of 2027. That direction helps us assess whether expected revenue, the cost structure, and working capacity support the goal.

The session addressed economic uncertainty, concentration of resources, and preparing information for investors. The lesson developed here focuses on an immediate task: building a budget we can review and use to make decisions.

Reviewing the previous year helps identify stronger and weaker months, recurring expenses, and changes in operations. The budget needs to explain why we expect those patterns to continue or change.

We can also work from a zero base, justifying what the business requires. The choice depends on the information available and the business's current stage. Both approaches benefit from explicit assumptions, especially those concerning sales, costs, inflation, and exchange rates where there is exposure.

A projected number is more useful when we can identify where it comes from and what would need to happen to achieve it.

The session proposes developing positive, neutral, and negative scenarios. Each allows us to consider how the business would respond to different sales and operating conditions.

If revenue grows, we need to understand the capacity required to serve that demand. If it stays flat, we need to review which costs change. If it falls or customers take longer to pay, cash availability may require decisions about priorities and commitments.

Preparation means identifying those differences and the decisions each scenario could require. Forecasts remain uncertain and need monitoring.

The conversation emphasized including personal pay among the business's expenses. This changes how we assess an operation that appears to sustain itself while leaving its founder's work unaccounted for.

Payroll, operating costs, and applicable obligations also belong in the review. Adjustments require current information and specific conditions. A general figure alone does not describe what each business needs.

Collection times affect the availability of money needed to meet commitments. Alongside sales forecasts, it is therefore useful to review when payment is expected and which payments must be maintained in the meantime.

The session also opened a discussion about concentration of resources and continuity. That review requires understanding the institutions, products, and terms under which the business operates. Protections and risks must be verified for each case before making financial decisions.

Scenario-based operating budget, version 0.1: a projection of revenue, costs, and cash requirements that states its assumptions, allows comparison across different business conditions, and is reviewed against actual performance.

This definition is an editorial synthesis derived from the session. It is not presented as a direct quotation or a validated financial method.

As an editorial exercise for applying the conversation, prepare a sheet with five questions:

1. What do I want to have changed in the business by the end of 2027?
2. Which 2026 data support my sales and cost assumptions?
3. Have I included my pay and every commitment needed to operate?
4. What changes in available cash if I sell less or collect payments later?
5. Which decision would I review first in each scenario, and what information would I use?

The exercise is not presented as an activity carried out during the session. Its purpose is to help turn the conversation into a concrete review of the business.

Preparation continues once the year begins. Comparing forecasts with actual sales, costs, and collections helps us recognize differences and review the decisions associated with them.

The session also mentioned tracking metrics and organizing information for conversations with investors. A consistent information base helps explain how the business is performing, without turning that preparation into a promise of investment.

The next action is to begin with the data available, identify what is missing, and make explicit the assumptions that currently underpin the 2027 budget.

This note was prepared from the meeting summary provided for Day 395 of D365-IRL. It was not checked against audio or a complete transcript. The structure, definition, and application questions are editorial work, not direct quotations.

The general focus on budget preparation is preserved. The summary's references to political events, banking institutions, cybersecurity incidents, coverage, and percentages are not reproduced as verified facts.

Verifiable personal archive. Evidence collection is ongoing.

Field Notes collection: https://www.d31.mx/field-notes?lang=en

High Frequency Execution: https://www.d31.mx/field-notes/high-frequency-execution?lang=en

Which assumption in your 2027 budget is most fragile?

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This content is informational and educational. Financial, tax, and employment decisions require reviewing the conditions applicable to each case.

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